Gold Price Forecast: Toward $5,000 by Year-End 2026

Context: J.P. Morgan's commodities research team, led by Gregory Shearer (Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy) and Natasha Kaneva (Head of Global Commodities Strategy), published updated gold forecasts in early 2026.

Key Takeaways:

Gold remains J.P. Morgan's "highest-conviction long" heading into the Fed's easing cycle. They project prices toward $5,000/oz by year-end 2026.

Central bank and investor demand projected to average 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. This relationship — between quarterly net demand from investors and central banks and gold prices — explains roughly 70% of quarter-on-quarter gold price changes.

ETF inflows expected at ~250 tonnes in 2026. Bar and coin demand forecast above 1,200 tonnes annually.

Gold's share of global financial assets has risen to ~2.8% as of Q3 2025, up significantly since 2010. Driven by the sharp price rally and robust investor inflows.

Trade tensions, de-dollarization, and fiscal deficits are the principal drivers. Large U.S. fiscal deficits, expectations of a softer dollar, and robust central bank accumulation underpin the forecast.

Gold prices posted continuous gains in 2025, climbing as much as 55% and surpassing $4,000/oz for the first time in October 2025.

Why it matters: When the largest U.S. bank's research team calls gold their highest-conviction long, it signals that precious metals are no longer a fringe allocation. J.P. Morgan's quarterly demand model provides a quantitative framework that institutional allocators can use to justify gold positions to their investment committees.