Solar, AI Data Centers, EVs: What the 2026 Numbers Say About Silver Demand

If you have shopped for silver in the last two years, you have heard the pitch. Solar panels need silver. AI data centers need silver. Electric vehicles need silver. Demand is exploding, supply can't keep up, so buy now.

Parts of that pitch are true. Parts are out of date. And one part runs directly against the most recent industry data. This article walks through what the 2026 numbers actually show, sector by sector, using the industry's own reference source. It is consumer education, not investment advice, and it makes no prediction about where the silver price is headed.

Where the numbers come from

The standard reference for silver supply and demand is the World Silver Survey, published each April by the Silver Institute and prepared by Metals Focus, a London-based precious metals consultancy. The 2026 edition was released on April 15, 2026, and covers full-year 2025 data plus a forecast for 2026. You can download the full World Silver Survey 2026 PDF free from the Institute's site, along with the launch press release.

Two cautions before the numbers:

• Forecasts move. In its February 10, 2026 outlook, the Silver Institute projected a 2026 market deficit of 67 million ounces (Moz). Two months later, the World Silver Survey put the 2026 deficit forecast at 46.3 Moz. Same organization, same research firm, a different number once more data came in. Anyone quoting a single forecast figure as settled fact is overselling it.
• Know whose report it is. The Silver Institute describes itself as “the global voice for expanding public awareness of silver's essential role.” It is an organization that promotes silver. The research is done by Metals Focus, an independent consultancy, and the survey is the standard public reference that press reports and dealer marketing draw on. That is a good reason to use it, and a good reason to read its forecasts as forecasts.

The big picture: industrial demand fell in 2025, and is forecast to fall again

Here is the headline that rarely makes it into a sales call. According to the World Silver Survey 2026:

• Total silver demand fell 2% in 2025 to about 1.13 billion ounces, the lowest since 2021. It is forecast to fall another 2% in 2026, to about 1.11 billion ounces.
• Industrial demand fell 3% in 2025 to 657.4 Moz. It is forecast to fall another 3% in 2026, to 639.6 Moz.
• The market stayed in deficit anyway. Demand exceeded supply for the fifth straight year in 2025, by 40.3 Moz, and the survey forecasts a sixth deficit in 2026 of 46.3 Moz.

Industrial use is still the largest single source of silver demand, at roughly 58% of the 2025 total. But “industrial demand is surging” is not what the 2025 data showed, and it is not what the 2026 forecast says.

Why did the market remain in deficit while industrial demand fell? Investment demand moved the other way. Global coin and bar demand rose 14% in 2025, to 217.7 Moz, and the survey expects it to rise about 18% more in 2026. For the supply side of the story, see our explainer on the silver supply deficit.

Solar: the biggest single use, and the one shrinking fastest

Solar photovoltaic (PV) cells use silver paste to carry electricity off the cell. For a decade, PV was the growth engine of industrial silver. According to a December 2025 Silver Institute release on a report it commissioned from Oxford Economics, PV accounted for 11% of silver industrial demand in 2014 and 29% in 2024.

Then the trend turned. The World Silver Survey 2026 reports:

• 2024: PV silver demand of 197.5 Moz.
• 2025: 186.6 Moz, down 6%.
• 2026 forecast: 151.0 Moz, down 19%.

That 19% figure, which circulated widely after pv magazine reported it in April 2026, matches the survey's own table: 186.6 Moz in 2025 falling to a forecast 151.0 Moz in 2026. It is a forecast, not a measured result, and it will be revised when the next data comes out.

A 35 Moz drop in one year is large. For scale, it is close to the 34.9 Moz of total physical investment demand the survey estimates for the entire United States in 2025.

Why solar silver demand can fall while solar keeps growing

This is the part that trips people up. Solar installations did not collapse. The survey notes that China alone added 275 gigawatts of solar capacity in January through November 2025, more than in all of 2024. So how does silver demand fall?

The answer is thrifting: using less silver per unit of output. When silver gets more expensive, manufacturers have every incentive to use less of it. The World Silver Survey attributes the 2025 decline to “intense competition and increasing silver raw material costs” pushing PV makers toward thrifting and substitution, and its 2026 outlook expects “price-led thrifting and substitution” to continue.

Thrifting takes several forms:

• Less silver in the paste. According to a March 2026 Solar Power World report, manufacturers are often increasing the share of copper in their pastes, and many of these changes stay compatible with existing screen-printing lines, so no new factory is needed.
• Silver-coated copper. The same report describes silver-coated copper pastes in use for rear-side contacts, with front-side applications in testing.
• Different metallization processes. In an April 2026 announcement, Germany's Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems reported cutting silver use in a common cell type (TOPCon) to about 1.1 milligrams per watt, against an industry average it put at 10 to 12 mg per watt. That work used a nickel and copper electroplating process on pilot equipment, not full production lines. A Fraunhofer researcher said the approach could be “firmly established in the photovoltaic market within two to three years.”

Lab and pilot results do not translate straight into factory output, and electroplating requires new equipment. But the direction is clear, and the survey's own forecast already reflects it. Solar can keep growing while each panel carries less silver.

There is also a feedback loop worth understanding. Higher silver prices are what speed up thrifting. A price rise driven partly by “solar demand” stories can, over time, reduce the very solar demand those stories rely on.

AI and data centers: real, but small and unquantified

AI is the newest part of the silver pitch, and the hardest to pin down with numbers.

What the sources actually say:

• The World Silver Survey 2026 credits AI-driven data center growth with “increasing silver use in servers and high-performance hardware,” and says those gains were outweighed by losses in PV.
• The Oxford Economics report released by the Silver Institute estimates that global IT power capacity grew from 0.93 gigawatts in 2000 to nearly 50 gigawatts in 2025. That measures data center growth, not silver tonnage.
• As of October 2026, neither the World Silver Survey 2026 nor the Silver Institute's public releases put a specific silver volume on AI or data center demand.

Here is a useful way to keep AI in proportion. The survey reports PV as a subset of its “electrical and electronics” category. Subtracting PV from that category leaves everything else electronic: phones, appliances, cars' electrical systems, power grids, servers, and more. On the survey's figures, that non-solar electronics slice was about 263 Moz in 2025 and is forecast at about 272 Moz in 2026, an increase of roughly 9 Moz. (Those are simple subtractions from the survey's table, not figures the survey itself publishes.)

AI servers are one contributor inside that slice, alongside every other electronic product. So even if all of the growth in non-solar electronics came from AI, which it does not, it would be about a quarter of the forecast 35 Moz decline in solar. When a seller tells you AI is “driving” silver demand, the honest answer is that it is helping at the margin.

Electric vehicles: steady, not explosive

EVs use more silver than gasoline cars because they carry more electronics, more electrical connections, and more power-handling components. The Oxford Economics report released by the Silver Institute estimates:

• EVs, especially battery-electric vehicles, use on average 67% to 79% more silver than internal combustion vehicles, about 25 to 50 grams per EV.
• Global automotive silver demand is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.4% from 2025 through 2031.
• EVs are expected to overtake gasoline vehicles as the main source of automotive silver demand by 2027, and account for 59% of the automotive market for silver by 2031.

A 3.4% annual growth rate is steady, real growth. It is not a boom. And it is a share shift within automotive demand: as EVs take share, some of that silver replaces what gasoline cars would have used anyway. The World Silver Survey 2026 describes “strong automotive end-use” and rising EV and charging infrastructure as supports for demand, and notes that brazing alloy demand, partly tied to automotive and aerospace, rose 1% in 2025. It does not publish a separate EV silver tonnage.

Putting the sectors side by side

Using the World Silver Survey 2026 figures and forecasts:

• Solar (PV): 186.6 Moz in 2025, forecast 151.0 Moz in 2026. The largest single application, and falling fastest because of thrifting.
• Electronics other than solar (derived): about 263 Moz in 2025, about 272 Moz forecast in 2026. Includes data centers and AI hardware, which the survey does not break out.
• Brazing alloys and solders: 50.5 Moz in 2025, forecast 51.0 Moz. Includes some automotive and aerospace use.
• Other industrial: 157.4 Moz in 2025, forecast 165.7 Moz.
• Coins and bars (investment, not industrial): 217.7 Moz in 2025, forecast to rise about 18% in 2026.

Notice what that list implies. Over 2025 and 2026, the change in silver demand is being driven less by factories and more by investors.

For background on why silver's industrial side makes it behave differently from gold in the first place, see our guide to silver industrial demand.

What this means for someone buying physical silver

None of this tells you whether silver is a good purchase, and nothing here should be read as a forecast. It does give you better tools for evaluating what you are told.

What the numbers do support:

• Silver has genuine, large industrial uses. That is not hype. Industrial demand was about 657 Moz in 2025.
• The market has run a deficit for five straight years, and a sixth is forecast. That is the Silver Institute's position, published with its data.
• Investment demand, including coins and bars, rose in 2025 and is forecast to rise again.

What the numbers do not support:

• “Solar demand is exploding.” The industry's own forecast is a 19% drop in 2026.
• “AI will drive silver demand.” As of October 2026, there is no published tonnage for AI silver use in the World Silver Survey. It is a supportive factor, not the main event.
• “EVs will create a silver shortage.” The commissioned forecast is about 3.4% annual growth in automotive demand. That is meaningful but gradual.
• “Industrial demand guarantees prices go up.” Industrial demand fell in 2025 and is forecast to fall again in 2026. Silver prices respond to many forces, including investment flows, the dollar, and interest rates. No demand statistic guarantees a price outcome.

How to use this when someone is selling to you:

• Ask for the source and the date. A legitimate statistic will trace to a named report and year. If a seller cites a demand figure, ask which edition of the World Silver Survey it came from.
• Watch for stale numbers. Some marketing still uses pre-2025 growth figures for solar. The current direction is down.
• Separate the story from the price. The industrial story is a reason some people choose to own silver. It is not a reason to pay a high premium, accept a poor buyback policy, or buy from a seller who pressures you on timing. Those are the costs you control, and they matter regardless of what solar panels do next year.
• Remember what physical metal is and is not. A coin or bar you hold has reduced counterparty risk compared with paper exposure, but not zero. You still depend on the dealer you buy from, the market you sell into, and where you store it.

The 2026 picture is more nuanced than the pitch. Silver demand is not collapsing, and it is not exploding. Solar is shrinking, electronics and autos are inching up, and investors are doing most of the heavy lifting. A buyer who knows that is harder to rush.

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